In FTPT it is the relative vote share of the main parties that drives the majority, not the absolute. So, order of victories since 1979 in terms of votes per 100 opposition votes: 1. 1983, 154 (Con) … (View Post)

Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that. I thi… (View Post)

I hate closed system analyses. Anything that doesn't mention abstention and voter churn misses a big part of the picture. And not analysing by ethnicity is a big miss. Go slower, do more. (View Post)

And the poor conduct after may have been more relevant to her fate than being out of her depth in number 10. (View Post)

OK, my predictions for tomorrow: 1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39% Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get th… (View Post)