Pro_Rata

UK vote numerical forecast: Lab 39% Con 22% LD 10% Grn 6% Ref 14% NI 3% SNP/PC 4% Ind/Oth 2% Seats: Con 70 Lab 461 LD 66 PC/SNP 22 Grn 3 Ref 3 Ind/Oth 6 NI 18 (View Post)

Blyth & Ashington: Average UKIP vote was around 20% across Blyth Valley and Wansbeck in 2015, on the national UKIP vote of 12.6%. So, assuming that UKIP and Reform map similarly, a 16% Reform vot… (View Post)

EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably Focaldata - MRP this PM Ipsos - tomorrow am MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out Norstat - proba… (View Post)

I don't meet anyone's idea of belonging in this group having jumped the day Corbyn exited, but I will be a Con -> Lab switcher. (View Post)

OK, my predictions for tomorrow: 1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39% Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get th… (View Post)