I wouldn't say that. By-elections are indicative rather than predictive and overstate the swings likely to be seen in a GE - a little for Labour, a lot for LD. But t you seem to be going to the … (View Post)

This it's just staying at home in by-elections narrative means nothing is wrong doesn't fit historically. Echibit A: That 1994 Dudley West by-election, the greatest Con-Lab swing since WW2,… (View Post)

Dagenham 1994 would be a closer match to Chester in terms of starting position, 52/36 vs 49/38, and that saw a 23% swing to Labour. Newham NE 1994 would be a closer starting position to Stretford &am… (View Post)

Do I get the sense you are a tentative hooligan? Be careful not to be mistaken for an um lout whilst you are out there. (View Post)

Well, someone will ask, so may as well be me. What's the German for schadenfreude again? (View Post)