I think ZeroCovidZoe lays out well something of what zero COVID entails. As am exercise in what this would take (I don't agree, but want to follow the logic as an exercise). I don't think h… (View Post)

The 4.5m single jabbed, of whom many will be recently jabbed 12-18s with good immune responses, are not vaccine naive either. Not sure how they are considered in the model, and might be a worthwhile … (View Post)

One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time. For example, two variants with the same R ra… (View Post)

Omicron I can't believe it It's never been this far away from home. Sorry for the glibness, but nothing to do but wait now. (View Post)

Didn't AZ hit it's 2 billionth dose recently? If we need 3-4 jabs a pop it'll be over a good couple of years, and I somehow doubt third doses will be a major priority in younger develo… (View Post)