One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time. For example, two variants with the same R ra… (View Post)

Omicron I can't believe it It's never been this far away from home. Sorry for the glibness, but nothing to do but wait now. (View Post)

Didn't AZ hit it's 2 billionth dose recently? If we need 3-4 jabs a pop it'll be over a good couple of years, and I somehow doubt third doses will be a major priority in younger develo… (View Post)

R at 1.03 for 20/11 vs 13/11. I think the progressive chill in the air will put another 0.05 on R, but there are straws in the wind the next few days will send R lower, so we may end up in the same p… (View Post)

Very sad. I'm afraid it was going to happen at some point. The Channel does appear to be less challenging than the Med, where the fatality rate was around 2 people per 100 attempting the crossin… (View Post)