I think this is a battle for the tactical vote in southern seats. A strong Labour showing may drive a greater proportion of tactical votes their way in a greater number of Southern seats, in a way th… (View Post)

I've had a look at the local election data for Bedfordshire Mid. This is more up to date, being the first by election for which there is a 2023 local round, but is complicated by a strong Indepe… (View Post)

As I said last night, it looks like Labour are going for it, for reasons that are very LD in nature. Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 48% chance of winning the new seat at a GE, barely changed from … (View Post)

NADINE (View Post)

Same question for the Tories was also tweeted: https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1692159452441448652?t=EttpZKJ-u-7xIN1qcEzRVw&s=19 35 Sat 40 Unsat 21 Neutral (View Post)