My thoughts on the probabilities: - A VOC by summer recess - 85 - BJ loses - 65 - Sunak v Truss - 22 - RS - 16, LT - 6 - Sunak v old hand (Hunt, May) - 4 - RS 3, OH 1 - Sunak v Gove - 6 - RS 5, MG 1 … (View Post)

Outcomes: BJ PM at next GE - 24 (SKS next PM - ca16) RS PM at next GE - 42 LT PM - 11 Old hand PM - 1 Gove PM - 2 Mid-rank cabinet PM - 16 CRG PM - 4 (View Post)

For comparison, the number of spoils in Batley & Spen 2016 was 171 as against 1084 in Southend West. Labour retained 80.2% of their GE vote in B&S, the Conservatives retained 46.4% of their G… (View Post)

"But, Carrie. I didn't realise that watertight covered other fluids" (View Post)

Yes, I think the practical and inevitable consequence of it being an advisory referendum was not to invalidate David Cameron's Conservative promise, or indeed Labour's, to honour the refere… (View Post)