I went to the source and not much background data on, for instance, the questions used to get these figures. But I'm going to call bullshit on the output number. (View Post)
Labour need to get 12% lead for a bare majority on uniform swing. If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vot… (View Post)
I'm imaging he has a large pre-election rally booked where he'll turn all this around. Maybe at a venue like Co-op Live - whose headline act tonight managed to get busted for soft drug possession in … (View Post)
Five post announcement polls in, last two better for the Tories, so Labour lead now down -0.2% on average. No consistent pattern yet emerging. (View Post)
The whole proportional / regional swing pattern really does make for a larger range of seat possibilities than usual because it just brings lots of seats in lots of places into the marginal window. E… (View Post)