And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents … (View Post)

I wouldn't say that. By-elections are indicative rather than predictive and overstate the swings likely to be seen in a GE - a little for Labour, a lot for LD. But t you seem to be going to the extre… (View Post)

This it's just staying at home in by-elections narrative means nothing is wrong doesn't fit historically. Echibit A: That 1994 Dudley West by-election, the greatest Con-Lab swing since WW2, and one o… (View Post)

Dagenham 1994 would be a closer match to Chester in terms of starting position, 52/36 vs 49/38, and that saw a 23% swing to Labour. Newham NE 1994 would be a closer starting position to Stretford &am… (View Post)

Do I get the sense you are a tentative hooligan? Be careful not to be mistaken for an um lout whilst you are out there. (View Post)