The model is wrong. I was also playing about with it and getting nonsense, so I entered exactly unchanged vote shares from the last GE and got: L 400 C 153 LD 55 Ref 4 G 3 So clearly a pro-Conservati… (View Post)

If only such a party had been in power for the last 15 years, the rot could have been stopped in time! (View Post)

Good result for the Tories. Given that LLG all declined sharply, is this evidence of tactical voting against Reform? More evidence from similar byelections is needed of course. (View Post)

Puzzled by this comment. Whatever reform are, they certainly aren't conservative. Nor are the Conservatives at the moment. If anything, it is the Labour government who are currently doing the closest… (View Post)

Doesn't that reduce the gap even further? Maybe even mean we spend less overall, if equalised? For example, I'm meeting a US friend in Brazil soon, we both got our jabs. Mine cost me £75, hers $700, … (View Post)