The main reason German GDP contracted in Q1, triggering a technical recession, was that government spending fell sharply as anti-Covid measures came to an end. A secondary factor was the impact of th… (View Post)

There is a fair amount of analysis of forecast accuracy out there. The BOE regularly publishes analysis of its forecasts alongside those of outside forecasters. The OBR does too, IIRC. People have lo… (View Post)

Yeah, writing is hard. I sometimes wonder where literary critics get off. Still, I think the criticism is broadly valid. Amis, McEwan, Barnes etc, I like all of them but there is a kind of controlled… (View Post)

All forecasts are almost always wrong. (View Post)

Wow I am super surprised by this. (sarcasm). (View Post)