When I ran the regression relative net favourabillity had the best in sample predictive power. I think that is logical. You have four seperate metrics (favourability and unfavourability for each lead… (View Post)

Thank you very much for publishing it. (View Post)

I'm sure I saw a bar chart based on this poll saying "only the Lib Dems can win here" though... (View Post)

When I was a kid in the 80s Dobermans were the favoured dog of whatever your preferred term is for the kind of people who get off on having scary dogs. But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell… (View Post)

Precisely. Trump is quite moderate as far as Republicans go, and that, along with a hope he will shake up a corrupt and ineffective political process, is why he is in with a shout of winning the WH a… (View Post)