The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like ca… (View Post)

No, that's very astute. Group 2 are essentially pressure groups, and sometimes move in and out of the more militant NGOs, who have a similar mindset. They get squeezed a bit at GE time because t… (View Post)

I think it's a bit naughty and it would have been decent to give it till the summer before saying she now needed to concentrate on winning the Brighton seat. I doubt if voters will care much but… (View Post)

The problem with Pip's ptherwise very convincing analysis is that it doesn't allow for the possibility of Farage jumping in, which IMO would transform the position, though quite how is not … (View Post)

Agreed. The Danes have a compromise system: 1. Parties can decide whether they want to have open or semi-open lists (see below). People who feel strongly can of course factor in the decision on this … (View Post)