A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might … (View Post)

Agreed. But in general we try to pigeonhole people into reliable supporters of X, and real people are often harder to categorise. PB is valuable because it offers a space where people can explore the… (View Post)

I agree with Casino, actually (a rare thing). Josiah, more than anyone else here, turns disagreement on the issues into personal criticism, as though the act of disagreeing with him on any detail was… (View Post)

The key factor on Reform is that they are plausible protest votes, and that's largely immune to practical issues. People inclined to "try someone else" have been through all the major parti… (View Post)

I don't know enough about the case to have a firm view, but the number of serious people saying the conviction is unsafe suggests that the "reasonable doubt" threshold has been passed. (View Post)