We have a local case in Godalming where the LibDems had a private deal with Labour to each stand down in one division in the town. The LDs reneged on the deal and stood in both (to be fair their curr… (View Post)

It was 11,300 issued last time, from an electorate of 70,000. 9,500 (84%!) out of 41,000 (57% turnout) actually voted (https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/postal_ballot_counts_11#incoming-1512683)… (View Post)

A relevant question is of course "How did you vote last time?" Someone who was fed up with Labour in 2019 is already factored in. (View Post)

My experience from counts is that it's still true - the PVs still favour the Tories even in seats where there are more Labour activists. It's less true for the reasons you say, but still a … (View Post)

For betting purposes, it's worth noting that this is relatively old YouGov data, cumulating subsamples from ranging from April 14 to 28. It seems credible that the Tories are making progress in … (View Post)