NeilVW
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Re: LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com
Have we done Stockton-on-Tees? Tories made 11 net gains and became the largest party, but the council remains at NOC. https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-tories-lose-labour-and-lib-dems-g… (View Post)1 -
Re: LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com
Yes, it was the Rallings/Thrasher NEV. 44% played 28% with LDs on 23%. Page 13 of the LE handbook - http://www.electionscentre.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Local-Elections-Handbook-1996-complete.… (View Post)1 -
Re: The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com
From my research, the BBC’s PNS relies on working from a baseline when a GE occurred on the same day as a LE. This is the norm but due to the recent abnormal period the last time was 2015. So I THINK… (View Post)1 -
Re: The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year (View Post)1 -
Re: How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Indeed. Typically Lab and Con will be a few points higher for a GE than a LE, and others lower. You can see this when those two types of elections are held on the same day. It’s instructive to look a… (View Post)1