Skewered We all do it at times, or most of us. I wanted Labour to win (or ideally Lab/LibDem) and allowed it to cloud my view of what was actually happening. On the other hand I correctly bet on the … (View Post)

This is not 2016. HYUFD is succumbing to the same error I made in 2019. It comprises two fatal betting mistakes: 1. normalcy bias. I believed Corbyn would perform in 2019 like he had in 2015. Same er… (View Post)

Great post Robert. Yesterday's CBS/YouGov North Carolina poll is a big one I think: Biden ahead +4 We should remember that opinion polls are now no longer merely hypothetical litmus tests, they repre… (View Post)

By the way, I have thought for the past fortnight that the single most important task now for Joe Biden is to stay alive. That's pretty much all he has to do but it's an important thing to do. (View Post)

Experience should teach you not to fall into the normalcy bias mistake. It happened with me in 2019 when I assumed Corbyn would repeat 2015. The circumstances this time around are vastly, viscerally,… (View Post)