MrEd

Definitely with Sunak. I suspect with Truss it's more about fear of a repeat of Friday's performance (though, as I said, the Telegraph's writers were a lot more hostile about her performance than peo… (View Post)

Re using the betting markets - how much are we in danger of a circular loop effect here? When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influenc… (View Post)

There is a very (outlandish) scenario where PM's vote collapses today post-the pile on and newspaper stories (plus the Speccie one today) and TT is the main beneficiary. Two other things: 1. Check ou… (View Post)

I don't think you can assume the Braverman vote will move en bloc to Truss as I don't think the ERG vote is as monolithic as made out (McVey and Davies were backing Hunt FFS). Plus, how many MPs in R… (View Post)

FPT: Not sure about this. Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about… (View Post)