I’ve backed Harris in Iowa, back in August - a whole £3 mind. But Selzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling. Iowa was never Alabama. (View Post)

@DavidL comment at the end of the last post: I’m not sure it is that close. The US election is about vision, enthusiasm and turnout and Harris is winning that battle hands down. You only have to look… (View Post)

I’ve never been a fan of Reeves but genuinely impressed by her delivery earlier. And can’t argue with the content. A genuinely redistributive budget which will benefit people who need services. Endin… (View Post)

The betting is often wrong. See Brexit. The America is on the wrong track polling could to some extent reflect Trump/Maga. Individual candidate unfavourability has Harris polling lower than Trump. Tr… (View Post)

And the Beeb is just as bad. Yesterday’s piece in PM from North Carolina just puffed up the horse race, found two women to talk to with diametrically opposing views and came up with the conclusion th… (View Post)