MikeL

Just the increased chance of Truss has already moved the GE odds. Con most seats now 1.91, having been mid 1.8s for last few days. (View Post)

In slightly better news for those of us hoping for a sane world: The 538 "Polls Only" model now gives the Democrats a 64% chance of winning the Senate. Link and then select "Lite"… (View Post)

Clutching at straws I know - but if you look at the Con MPs ballots - the person 2nd last in every ballot so far has always come last in the following ballot. ie the order of candidates has never cha… (View Post)

The biggest thing to remember is that 2 years is a long time. Up to now, May 2024 has been considered most likely for a GE, but it could easily be October 2024. If Truss is heading for a wipeout defe… (View Post)

It would look ridiculous but Sunak could lend Badenoch 20 tomorrow. There's no way Sunak would come last with 95. If he did that, he eliminates Truss on the spot. (View Post)