Both the quarterly and annual Starmer exit markets are moving strongly in direction of Starmer remaining PM. Annual market: 2026 exit now 1.79/1.82. Was around 1.4 less than one month ago. Quarterly … (View Post)

The Masters golf Betfair market is strange. You can make 100% certain money by laying people who are not in the field. 93 players have qualified. One final extra place will be added for the Texas Ope… (View Post)

Democrats are actually now favourites to win the Senate: Dems 1.84 Reps 2.06 Democrats hot favourites to win the House: Dems 1.17 Reps 6 (View Post)

Yes, that's right. But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty. So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20%… (View Post)

Per Electoral Calculus that gives: Ref 268 Con 108 Green 94 LD 69 Lab 39 Interestingly the Greens would sweep most of London. London seats: Con 11 LD 6 Ref 6 Lab 4 And Greens would win everything els… (View Post)