My alternative history has Saddam falling victim to the Arab spring, like (eventually) Assad, probably with Libya style Western intervention, only without the complication of ISIS because they were a… (View Post)

That chimes with my experience: the Americans I spoke to last week, and the US new coverage, were all way more negative about the war than here in the UK. It was really quite notable. Trump had manag… (View Post)

I really don’t know what the “right” answer is now. The Americans and Israelis have crossed the Rubicon. But it’s easy to imagine all sorts of different outcomes from any strategy, from glorious libe… (View Post)

Sadly the oil price drives global GDP more than it should, still. Far less than in the 1970s, but still a lot. Very strong negative correlation between global GDP and crude oil price with a 6-12m lag… (View Post)

I was there last week with work. And will be back in a couple of months. It’s fine for business visitors. A small frisson of fear at immigration these days, but I know I’m not the target demographic.… (View Post)