I really don’t know what the “right” answer is now. The Americans and Israelis have crossed the Rubicon. But it’s easy to imagine all sorts of different outcomes from any strategy, from glorious libe… (View Post)

Sadly the oil price drives global GDP more than it should, still. Far less than in the 1970s, but still a lot. Very strong negative correlation between global GDP and crude oil price with a 6-12m lag… (View Post)

I was there last week with work. And will be back in a couple of months. It’s fine for business visitors. A small frisson of fear at immigration these days, but I know I’m not the target demographic.… (View Post)

I occasionally pipe up, if only to remind people that polling continues to show significantly more support for trans people by females than by males, and that public opinion on the issue is far more … (View Post)

It’s been a funny few months of economic data. PMI was well up, gilt yields were going down, stock market soaring, productivity growing finally after over a decade. But GDP very sluggish and unemploy… (View Post)