There's so much of that sort of stuff going around. Historical stories with just enough truthiness to draw you in. We have an epistemological problem with establishing truth that has become markedly … (View Post)

I think the point is that if their national vote share is ~30% then you'd expect them to poll more than 30% in about half the seats and less than 30% in the other half (this might vary due to the dis… (View Post)

I've seen very little coverage of the recently concluded fourth plenum in China. Kinda nuts how much time is spent on the minutiae of Trump's social media posting, but the media isn't willing to do t… (View Post)

We should be wary of over-reacting to the Ukraine War. One of the features of the Ukraine War is that neither side has achieved air superiority. It's also possible that someone will develop an effect… (View Post)

I think that's wrong in one respect. The next election is going to be more about turnout than tactical voting. If you look at how the opinion poll for this by-election was wrong, it wasn't that the L… (View Post)