What we're interested in here is the change between one poll and the other, so the occurrence we're most interested in is where one poll has an error not in the Tories favour, and the next … (View Post)

The methods note includes this paragraph. "The survey data Ipsos has used for this model was collected via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Panellists are recruited using random probability uncluste… (View Post)

One reason for these discussions is because the tactical voting websites lean heavily on the MRP predictions at a constituency level. This makes them relevant to talk about especially if they are use… (View Post)

I don't know whether the difference is that less productive companies are more likely to go bust in the US, or that companies are more likely to get rid of less productive workers/parts of their… (View Post)

43 days and 5 hours from election announcement to exit poll. Two-thirds is 28 days 19 hours and 20 minutes in, which is tomorrow, at 12:20. Almost there... (View Post)