That's amazing. There are only a handful of councils left to declare and the Tories are currently the third party in terms of number of councillors elected, having lost 44% of their sitting coun… (View Post)

I think I agree with Casino that a winning pitch from the Tories is to move on from the arguments that currently split the party, and move onto thinking about answers for the the new problems. It… (View Post)

We all miss Mike. I'm sure he'd have included a graph of how the odds for London Mayor had swung about over the last 36 hours in the thread header. (View Post)

The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it? If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome. (View Post)

Yes. At this stage you can only make a probabilistic forecast, but the outcome will be categorical. So you have to be grown-up about judging whether the forecast was reasonable or not. (View Post)