I think the point is that if their national vote share is ~30% then you'd expect them to poll more than 30% in about half the seats and less than 30% in the other half (this might vary due to the dis… (View Post)

I've seen very little coverage of the recently concluded fourth plenum in China. Kinda nuts how much time is spent on the minutiae of Trump's social media posting, but the media isn't willing to do t… (View Post)

We should be wary of over-reacting to the Ukraine War. One of the features of the Ukraine War is that neither side has achieved air superiority. It's also possible that someone will develop an effect… (View Post)

I think that's wrong in one respect. The next election is going to be more about turnout than tactical voting. If you look at how the opinion poll for this by-election was wrong, it wasn't that the L… (View Post)

That's not enshittification. It looks like the redesign is intended to present a summary of the information first, to avoid information overload, and you can find more detail on something in particul… (View Post)