I'm not sure the opinion polls were wrong, as such. They showed high levels of don't knows, and there was a low turnout. This meant that the "no" side, who ran a much better campa… (View Post)

I don't think it was a strong vote for the status quo, reflecting social conservatism. A lot of people voted no because they didn't think the replacement wording went far enough - lots of c… (View Post)

This is another example of the importance of campaigns. There were large majorities in favour of these amendments, at least in principle, before the campaigns went into the detail of the replacement … (View Post)

People didn't plot against Johnson for the fun of it. If Johnson had followed his own Covid rules, if he hadn't lied to Parliament about not doing so, if he hadn't made an alleged sexu… (View Post)

Not particularly. The People Polling poll had a decline in the Tory share and this poll has no change. Both YouGov and People Polling tend to have lower Tory shares, and higher ReformUK shares, than … (View Post)