Yes. The sample sizes are about 850, which is small by GB standards, but not particularly small enough to airily wave away a 9pt drop. That said, if you look at the last three polls, the sequence in … (View Post)

I may not believe in God, but I do have faith in the seasonal cycle. Summer will come*. * Volcanoes permitting. (View Post)

The Fall of Kabul. That's where the big change happens on this graph. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ A big part of Biden's appeal was being the competent grown-… (View Post)

I think this is why Biden's approval ratings are so worrying, because they're generally considered to be more accurate this far ahead of the vote, compared to opinion polls. Biden's ap… (View Post)

Perhaps I was overreacting to the suggestion in the thread header that Biden would win Florida. (View Post)