Historically, one of the reasons that Labour tended to underperform the opinion polls was that their voters tended to be younger and poorer - both groups with lower turnout. Since Labour have now los… (View Post)

That's a really strange prediction. What factors would lead to the best guess for Reform being at the bottom of their range? (View Post)

I don't think this is right. The battlefield is definitely more hostile with the addition of ubiquitous drones, but in order to advance you still need to provide your soldiers with a combination… (View Post)

Similarly, "24 hours to save the NHS!" I think the potential for a collapse of Reform is that Nigel Farage will be 70 in 2034. He keeps on walking away from politics when it doesn't se… (View Post)

All models are wrong, but some are useful. Some forecasts can be accurate, but sufficiently imprecise as to be useless. You may as well forecast that there will be weather tomorrow. I guess the chart… (View Post)