If there's 40% RefCon, then Reform have a great chance in the by-election. (View Post)

Labour are completely disingenuous about that sort of thing anyway. They're never going to stand aside for the Greens anywhere, so their argument is essentially that you have no choice but to vo… (View Post)

The combined Tory-Reform vote is up 9pp in the opinion polls since the general election, which would take them to 31% here. Plus it's a by-election, so swings can be exaggerated. If Reform can o… (View Post)

Greens third would be grimly entertaining given that they're the favourites, but Labour third is only properly funny if they fall below 10% of the vote. (View Post)

Yes, that's a good point. Creating an easy story for the overworked journalist is a sensible thing to do. (View Post)