I think TSE is wrong to advise people to wait to see who survives. The value bet will be to look at which of the long-odds leadership hopefuls you think have a good chance of surviving. Once everyone… (View Post)

There's only room for about 400-something MPs to sit down in the Commons chamber anyway. Labour might have so many MPs that they couldn't all find a seat even if they used both sides, and n… (View Post)

My daughter was away from home Monday-Friday for the May local elections on a work training course. So she applied for a postal vote. The postal vote did not arrive before she left home for the week,… (View Post)

Not closet racists. Lots of them are very open about it. (View Post)

Past-vote weighting does a lot of the heavy lifting. 25 2019 Lib Dems voters in the sample, weighted up to 78. 81 2019 Labour voters, weighted down to 49. I would not be very confident in the results… (View Post)