True. This suggests that the failure in this case was in translating the opinion polls into a seats forecast, which has implications for general election predictions. (View Post)

Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower … (View Post)

I want to see the difference compared to the last election, so that I can see how the votes have changed, not with all the defections, etc, messing the comparison up. (View Post)

Yes. A general election would only be called in those circumstances if the Commons refused to pass an austerity budget, otherwise it would create panic in the bond markets. (View Post)

I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave. (View Post)