I think Casino argued around 3.5% would be needed. Of course, x% of GDP goes a bit further if GDP is higher. (View Post)

Wasn't the lesson of the Brexit campaign that the more you try to explain away a numerical "lie" from the other side, the more you amplify the original claim, and the more you reinforc… (View Post)

Had a similar experience with water recently. Eight days ago the water came out of the tap discoloured. Had it tested - it's full of e coli because slurry washed off the cattle field has found i… (View Post)

That's because they calculate the seat numbers with probabilities, which is a superior approach. If their model predicted ten seats with Labour on 40 and the Tories on 35, the chances are that t… (View Post)

I think the Electoral Calculus seven tribes is a good analysis. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html Reform are pitching for the Strong Right and Somewheres. Sunak is a Kind Young Capi… (View Post)