All models are wrong, but some are useful. Some forecasts can be accurate, but sufficiently imprecise as to be useless. You may as well forecast that there will be weather tomorrow. I guess the chart… (View Post)

Many Ukrainians are reportedly sick of the word "resilience". They tend to think that they wouldn't have had to be so resilient if the West had got off its arse and provided them with … (View Post)

If Labour fall behind the Greens then their tactical voting argument is shot to ribbons. That's fine with the Lib Dems, who are confined to ~100 mostly naturally Tory constituencies. But the Gre… (View Post)

The second-worst result for Labour is a Reform win with the Greens second. Labour absolutely have to finish above the Greens. That's way more important to Labour than whether Reborn elect anothe… (View Post)

That's a really bad development. (View Post)