Seems to me one of the most important numbers is the proportion of Conservative 2019 voters now saying they will vote Labour. So that's what I looked at. I only took the value from the first (Yo… (View Post)

My hypothesis is that public opinion, as measured by opinion polls, mostly changes in discrete jumps in reaction to events that cut-through to people not paying much attention to politics. This can l… (View Post)

It is the first score of 18% for the Tories in YouGov. Truss didn't score lower than 19% with YouGov. The latest YouGov, with changes on the Truss nadir (20-21 Oct 2022) is: CON 18 (-1) LAB 44 (… (View Post)

I'm wondering whether Labour ignored it on the basis of not giving it more publicity before polling day, but I hope that a big fuss is made about it subsequently - letters to the Cabinet Secreta… (View Post)

Not vilification. Mockery. I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April. You are willing to point to single data points to m… (View Post)