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Re: The Butterfly Effect – Bush vs. Gore revisited – politicalbetting.com
In 2016 Clinton lost the tipping point state by 0.77%, and won the national vote by 2.1%. So the Electoral College would have been on a knife edge (assuming UNS) with a national vote margin of 2.9. I… (View Post)5 -
Re: The Butterfly Effect – Bush vs. Gore revisited – politicalbetting.com
Yes, that's logically true, but it's also kinda irrelevant. The Harris campaign cannot redistribute Democratic voters from California to Pennsylvania. They're mostly stuck with the geo… (View Post)1 -
Re: The Butterfly Effect – Bush vs. Gore revisited – politicalbetting.com
The figures I found for 2016 had Clinton on a net -12. So, as you say, Harris is a lot more popular/less unpopular than Clinton. The thing that most people seem to gloss over is that Trump was at a n… (View Post)2 -
Re: The State of the Union, Week 7 – politicalbetting.com
Maybe Britain needs a forced choice referendum? Cut Spending (on the NHS and the State Pension) vs Raise Taxes (on Everyone including You) (View Post)2 -
Re: A potentially awkward start for the new Tory leader – politicalbetting.com
My impression is that MPs do not spend enough time scrutinising government legislation. It's something that could easily be a very full-time job, and then ideally I'd want an MP to be takin… (View Post)1
