You can check the documents published by the CDC using links I gave above. Or decide to trust twitter randoms with a million Russian bot followers. (View Post)

Making some numbers up to illustrate what I think the situation is. May election: Mean Tory seat losses 150. Probability >200 Tory seat losses 20% Probability Hung Parliament 5% December election:… (View Post)

I wondered whether one effect was due to recently widowed women finding themselves driving a lot more than they were previously. (View Post)

Banning >70 year olds from driving would be good for road safety, bad for electoral prospects, study says. (View Post)

He's 20% behind. That's as close to certain defeat as it gets. He'll wait. (View Post)