Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of: CON 25% (226) LAB 30% (321) LDM 15% (56) RFM 17% (4) GRN 8% (3) We're some distance from that, bu… (View Post)

I love that Private Eye has *by far* the lowest rate of people who don't know who they will vote for. People who read Private Eye are clearly exceptionally well-informed and decisive. I expect t… (View Post)

If you were a Tory canvasser in Godalming, and you thought your canvass returns were better than the opinion polls, and you placed a bet on Hunt to hold his seat - would that be "insider betting… (View Post)

The Lib Dem track record of going for prominent Tories is poor. They're at risk of trading the resources that would net five lower profile gains elsewhere in return for a near-miss against a big… (View Post)

I think that the British Conservative Party is more likely to adopt the mantle of nativist politics to head off the risk of being outflanked to its right. (View Post)