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Re: A grim election night so far for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
We've kinda glossed over the Blackpool South result, already looking forward to further results to come. The Guardian quote Prof Curtice to put the result into its proper context. "The hone… (View Post)2 -
Re: MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
I remember delivering leaflets for the Greens in Exeter over a decade ago, and we couldn't manage to make the breakthrough to win a single council seat. So I'm delighted to see them up to 7… (View Post)3 -
Re: MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers? In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% … (View Post)1 -
Re: MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vo… (View Post)1 -
Re: MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com
That's right, they're defending fewer than a thousand this time. Losing half their councillors seems like a reasonable benchmark. If they lose half their MPs they'd end up with about 1… (View Post)3
