Tactical voting breaks MRPs in two separate ways. Let's recap why MRPs previously did well - they picked up the change in support that had the Tories ahead of Labour in social class C2DE, and pr… (View Post)

If it was just this one guy, maybe it would be worth considering that angle, but you could ignore this one guy and C4 still gathered a large quantity of damning material on Reform campaigners, includ… (View Post)

Ohio is R+6 in the Cook PVI, so a strong Democrat performance would put it on a knife edge, but Texas is only R+5, so Ohio's days as a swing state are firmly behind it for now. (View Post)

Latest polls from each firm (of which there are 18) Below 20% Techne Redfield & Wilton YouGov Survation Deltapoll Ipsos Whitestone Insight People Polling Lord Ashcroft At 20% BMG Opinium Above 20… (View Post)

I think TSE is wrong to advise people to wait to see who survives. The value bet will be to look at which of the long-odds leadership hopefuls you think have a good chance of surviving. Once everyone… (View Post)