How determined do we think Israel are in Lebanon? The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-opt… (View Post)

I believe TSE had a long-odds bet on Burnham to win 55-59.9% of the vote, and he was just 0.2pp short. (View Post)

Aberdeen is heading for a faceplant either way, alas, because the national ability to develop new industries is very close to zero, and all the attention is on legacy industry rather than developing … (View Post)

There is zero risk of a Venus-style runaway greenhouse effect. Earth is simply too far away from the Sun. But, in general, the scientists have been cautious about highlighting low probability high im… (View Post)

One of the pollsters did point out that respondents to the poll might have been giving their past vote for the 2024 Mayoral election, rather than the GE, and thus the polls would have been downweight… (View Post)