I think it will be more like DUP 20% Alliance 15%. DUP vote has actually been remarkably stable at about 20% for a while now. I don't know how it will play out with transfers but I think 24 seats is … (View Post)

I'm surprised how few candidates the LDs are standing in the Northeast. I think even the Greens are standing more candidates. They seem to be only concentrating on the parts of Newcastle, Gateshead a… (View Post)

The LDs should be narrow favourites I think and they should be able to completely flood the constituency with activists from neighbouring Somerset and West Dorset. LD 45% Con 40% Lab 8% Other 7% ~25%… (View Post)

That's been the main constant since 2015 TBH. I don't see that changing much and the Tories dropping much below 60% of the over 65 vote at the next election. The main swing vote is working class midd… (View Post)

Alliance gets lots of transfers from Green, SDLP and UUP voters. I think the problem for them will be getting 2nd seats in crowded constituencies like North Down where the Greens already have a seat … (View Post)