If a recount comes out with the opposite result, equally narrowly - which sounds quite possible in the circumstances you descibe, the party that won the first time is pretty much guaranteed a further… (View Post)

Which is the pretty frank and decent answer that Mandleson gave last night, when asked about the low turnout and low Labour share, behind the apparent landslide. The psephological research that needs… (View Post)

I expect the issue will be that despite the very large swing, it retained some element of non-proportionality (some residual UNS effect, if you will) which buggered up the MRP models that essentially… (View Post)

That’s exactly what I said both last night and this morning. If Reform disappears, just under a third of them would have stayed in their armchair, just over a third would have backed the Tories, and … (View Post)

The first iteration had some absurd LibDem projected gains from Labour in it - such as Finchley, where a glance at the actual result shows how absurd it was. Cambridge, Bermondsey - these seats were … (View Post)