The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us. Whereas m… (View Post)

Did you miss OGH’s graphs showing the betting movement on Brexit night and on Trump, first time around? And on May’s GE triumph? All you can conclude is that no-one putting down money before there is… (View Post)

His closing days campaign has clearly been aimed mostly at setting up the pre-planned ‘election stolen’ narrative, rather than actually trying to win. (View Post)

Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this. Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in th… (View Post)

It depends on how the vote falls. If Trump is gaining useless extra votes from ethnic male voters in New York and California, while Harris is doing well with female voters in the swing states, then n… (View Post)