A nice thought, provided we can forget how betting moved towards Remain and Clinton as close of poll approached. The only conclusion to reach is that whatever is driving these last minute bets, it su… (View Post)

I also think they needed to decide whether the attack line would be that Starmer is weak and clueless and has no plan, or whether he was cunning and devious and has a secret socialist agenda. Trying … (View Post)

It’s hard to be brisk on your own, for sure. (View Post)

FPT Of the three factions into which the Liberal Party had split, each with a tranche of MPs, one allied with the Tories and kept its separate ‘National Liberal’ identity for a surprisingly long time… (View Post)

The demographic models inevitably move you toward proportional swing, since the changes within each demographic subset are applied proportional to the numbers of that demographic in each seat. Wherea… (View Post)