Problem is socially liberal and fiscally conservative is normally a pretty niche position, hence Clegg's LDs got just 8% here in 2015 and the FDP are now polling at less than 5% on average and t… (View Post)

Indeed, almost certainly Trump would be removed by his Cabinet and replaced by Vance as POTUS if he ordered a military attack on Canada and refused to back down. Just 25% of Americans want Canada to … (View Post)

Looks like a landslide win for the Union in West Germany then at the constituency level with just patches of SPD seats left mainly around the big cities. A clean sweep for the CSU in Bavaria but an A… (View Post)

For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9% (View Post)

Kemi's problem as I said at the time is while she can hold most 2024 Tory voters, she is not centrist enough for Labour and LD voters who preferred Cleverly or Tugendhat and she is not populist … (View Post)