Even Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn twice won Caerphilly, it is not redwall. It is a nice to have for Farage but he doesn't need it to become UK PM, if he and Reform win most of the seats Boris won i… (View Post)

A Jenrick led Conservatives won't get tactical votes to beat Reform, it basically would be Reform 2 anyway. A Badenoch led Conservatives wouldn't get many either as Kemi is now aping Jenrick more. A … (View Post)

What will worry Farage is Reform got 36% in Caerphilly ie above their UK poll average of about 30% but still lost due to Labour tactical votes for Plaid. It shows that Reform are not guaranteed a maj… (View Post)

3000 votes still pretty close. Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid (View Post)

Indeed, the odds now probably just favour Plaid but remember in the Runcorn by election most commentators thought Labour had nicked it until the declaration where Reform won by just 6 votes (View Post)