Kerry led Bush in most May 2004 polls, indeed CBS had Kerry 6% ahead of Bush. Bush went on to win. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2004/bush-vs-kerry In May 1992 Gallup had P… (View Post)

And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines. However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of… (View Post)

It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents. The Democrats will also … (View Post)

New Scotland polling for Peston tonight forecasts Labour will win most Scottish MPs for the first time since 2010 with 28 MPs while the SNP collapse to just 19 (View Post)

In 1997 they benefited from general election turnout and the county seats up being last contested in 1993 when the Tories had lost control of every county council except Bucks. So the only way was up (View Post)