For the worst restrictions quite possibly. But it will be a slow climb back down the tiers as the R rate and the hospitalization rate decline. The R rate is still the more important because it acts e… (View Post)

Do not underestimate the power of exponential spread. A 70% reduction in hospitalisations per case is only worth a week and a half at R=2. (View Post)

Not yet. It is in schools now. (View Post)

R will still be critical. Do not forget that the vaccines only provide partial protection: around 70% according to the AZ trial, and similar is guesstimated for a single Pfizer shot. So if you let it… (View Post)

I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The … (View Post)